For investors and enthusiasts of high-end Swiss watches, new data indicates that the prices of pre-owned watches are continuing to decline. This trend is particularly beneficial for those seeking Rolex watches, notorious for their limited availability and long waitlists.
Morgan Stanley recently shared insights revealing that the WatchCharts Overall Market Index—which tracks a selection of 60 luxury Swiss watches across 10 brands in the secondary market—declined for the ninth consecutive quarter as of June 30. Prices have been dropping since their peak in the first quarter of 2022. In the latest quarter, prices fell by 2.1% from the previous quarter and by 1.2% year-over-year.
“The decline in the secondary market is widespread, with few brands performing well in the second quarter,” noted Morgan Stanley analysts.
The firm anticipates this downward trend to persist throughout the year.
Among the brands, only five saw year-over-year price increases, including Montblanc (+2.4%) and Hamilton (+2.2%). Conversely, luxury brands like A. Lange & Söhne (-5.3%), Breitling (-5.9%), Omega (-6.8%), Rolex (-7.2%), and Audemars Piguet (-12.5%) experienced significant drops.
These trends in the secondary market impact not only individual watch values but also prices in the primary market, where new watches are sold by authorized dealers (ADs).
Perhaps the most surprising development is that Rolex, a brand seemingly resistant to market pressures, is now feeling the effects. Dealers known as “flippers”—who buy new watches to resell them at higher prices—are facing challenges. This has led to an increased supply of new Rolex watches at the primary market level.
Morgan Stanley identified two key factors indicating reduced speculation in Rolex watches: the size of the “gray market,” defined by new-condition watches sold on the secondary market, and wait times for specific Rolex models at ADs.
Their analysis showed a decrease in the number of Rolex watches in the gray market, attributed to rising retail prices and falling secondary market prices, which make flipping less profitable.
Furthermore, Morgan Stanley and WatchCharts assessed wait times for popular Rolex models using data from a Rolex subreddit. Excluding the Rolex Daytona chronograph due to limited sample size, they found improved wait times for certain sports models like the Submariner, GMT-Master II, and Explorer. These models have shown decreased wait times compared to previous years.
In summary, the combination of reduced gray market supply and shorter wait times for popular Rolex sports watches suggests a decline in speculative buying. This is promising news for the primary market and indicates that demand from Rolex fans may be stabilizing.
“We believe there is generally greater [Rolex] availability on the primary market, and that demand is waning due to decreased speculative purchasing and organic demand,” said WatchCharts founder and CEO Charles Tian to Yahoo Finance.
Ultimately, this means more Rolex watches are available for regular consumers at ADs. For dedicated Rolex fans, the dream of owning a 2024 Rolex Submariner may soon become a reality.
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